Growth An ever-expanding economy – L’Economiste

As the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group opened in Washington, D.C., amid «profound geopolitical, technological, and demographic shifts,» Morocco stands out as one of the most resilient emerging economies in the MENA region.

■ IMF: Morocco, an island of stability in an ocean of uncertainty
In its new projections, the IMF confirms Morocco’s macroeconomic strength. Inflation remains exceptionally moderate: 0.9% in 2024, 1.2% in 2025, and 1.8% in 2026, well below the levels observed in other emerging countries. The current account deficit, however, widens to 2.3% of GDP in 2025 (compared to 1.2% in 2024), due to a strong appetite for imports linked to public and private investment. The unemployment rate remains high, revealing a persistent mismatch between economic growth and job creation. Despite these structural challenges, Morocco is praised for its prudent management of public finances.

■ World Bank: A momentum driven by investment, FDIs and agriculture…
The World Bank confirms this growth momentum, estimating real GDP at 4.4% in 2025, driven by public investment, FDIs (particularly in the automotive and extractive industries), and a recovering agriculture thanks to improved climate conditions. However, the international institution warns of a persistent gap between economic growth and job creation. In response, the Moroccan Government has launched a roadmap for employment, including incentives for private investment, the modernization of active labor market policies, and measures to preserve rural jobs.
■ Bank Al-Maghrib: Monetary prudence despite a favorable environment
For its part, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) , at its Board meeting of September 23, 2025, chose to maintain its key rate at 2.25%, considering that uncertainties remain high, both internationally (geopolitical tensions, US trade policy) and internally (water stress, agricultural conditions). BAM, however, notes moderate inflation (1.1% over the first eight months of 2025) and accelerated economic growth to 4.6% in 2025, slightly more optimistic than the projections of the IMF and the World Bank. This divergence is partly explained by different assumptions on cereal production (41.3 million quintals in 2025 according to BAM). Bank Al-Maghrib also highlights the solidity of the external accounts, with a current account deficit contained at 2.3% of GDP and foreign exchange reserves covering 5.5 months of imports.
Fatim-Zahra TOHRY